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April 2009
A look at graduation rates
Andi Egbert, Twin Cities Compass
Graduation rate is a major indicator of future success, for individuals, our region, and the state as a whole. Here are some trends in graduation rates, and what they may portend for the future.
Q: For many seniors, graduation is not far away. What can Twin Cities Compass tell us about high school graduation rates?
If the last four years' worth of data is any indication, less than 70 percent of the students who entered 9th grade four years ago will graduate this spring, i.e., "on time." Among lower-income students and students Of Color in our region, less than half will successfully exit high school in four years. There are other ways to calculate graduation rates, but this one is more honest about the fate of all our students, because it considers those who drop out, those who are in high school for more than four years, and students whose status is unknown. In short, the graduation data gives us plenty of cause for alarm.
Q: Schools throughout the region have been working to reduce educational disparities. Are we making progress?
We have seen modest improvement in graduation rates for students Of Color and lower-income students over the past four years, but the pace is far too slow. We need all students to leave high school successfully prepared for additional education or on a path to sustainable work.
Throughout students' educational journey, the state's Minnesota Comprehensive Assessments (MCA-II) exams are the primary tools to measure their progress toward the state academic standards (and gauge whether schools and districts are making "Adequate Yearly Progress," as required under the federal No Child Left Behind act.) Public school students in nearly all grades will take an MCA-II test in the next month. We know from these assessments that wide disparities among students open up very early on, as indicated by 3rd grade reading scores.
A teacher once told me, "Until 3rd grade you learn to read; after that you read to learn." In other words, reading ability lays the foundation to all academic success. Today's early disparities in reading do not bode well for closing gaps in later achievement and/or graduation rates. We need to think about improving graduation rates by intervening many, many years earlier than we are at present.
Q: Why are people concerned about this math test as a new state graduation requirement?
For the first time, 11th graders are required to pass the Graduation-Required Assessments for Diploma (GRAD) section within the MCA-II math test to earn a diploma next year. (A passing score on an earlier reading and writing GRAD test is also required.) The last time the MCA-II math test was given, less than 40 percent of juniors, both statewide and in our region, demonstrated proficiency. While passing the math GRAD is not the same as proficiency on the MCA-II, it’s obvious many juniors are struggling with these math standards.
Growing concern over withholding diplomas from the majority of the class of 2010 led state Senator Chuck Wiger (DFL-Maplewood), chair of the Senate's Education Policy Committee, to introduce a bill to give juniors who fail the math or other GRAD tests an alternative route to graduation. His bill (SF 405) would allow students to graduate if they pass all required coursework and credits, take all remediation courses offered, and retake the test (of whichever subject they failed) at least twice. State Representative Carlos Mariani (DFL-St. Paul) has introduced a companion bill in the House (HF 501). In mid-April, both the House and Senate Education Omnibus bills included language from the original bills.
Of particular concern is that juniors who fail the math test have only one year for remediation. Previously, students took a math test that was required for graduation in 8th grade, allowing years for additional instruction. The state Department of Education has not yet annouced what a "passing" score on the math GRAD test will be, and the legislature has not yet passed Senator Wiger's bill, or an alternative.
Q: What can we learn from this policy debate?
To prepare students for the global economy we need to focus on attaining better educational outcomes. Yet assessments of any kind present a balancing act between desiring accountability and pragmatic implementation of higher standards. Furthermore, if we expect students to climb higher, we need to put in place all the rungs of the ladder to help them get to graduation on time.
If you are interested in seeing how you measure up, you might want to try your hand at some sample questions on the 11th grade MCA-II math test.
Andi is a research associate on the Twin Cities Compass project. She holds a Master of Public Policy degree from the Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs.
