In a time of big data, AI, and general information overload, we need to be aware of data's limitations and biases so that we can make informed decisions. This is especially true when it comes to socioeconomic and demographic data, which can have a significant impact on our understanding of society and the communities we serve. Here are three data myths debunked:

Myth #1: Minnesota will become majority BIPOC by 2050

One common myth suggests Minnesota's population will become majority-minority by the year 2050. However, current demographic trends and projections do not support this notion. While Minnesota has been experiencing an increase in its Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) populations, we are unlikely to reach a point where BIPOC Minnesotans constitute a majority of the overall population by 2050. The state's growth rates, immigration patterns, and birth rates, combined with the sizeable White population, suggest that Minnesota will become increasingly racially diverse but will maintain a White majority for the foreseeable future.

Chart of Persons of Color as a percent of the total population, Minnesota and U.S., 1960-2075. The chart shows Minnesota's BIPOC population growing from 42,000 in 1960 (2%) to 1.28 million today (22%) to possibly over 3 million by 2075 (about 46% of Minnesota's population)).

 

The state's growth rates, immigration patterns, and birth rates, combined with the sizeable White population, suggest that Minnesota will become increasingly racially diverse but will maintain a White majority for the foreseeable future.

Myth #2: Information collected by the Census Bureau can be shared or used against me

By law, the U.S. Census Bureau cannot share personal data with any other government or law enforcement agency. Title 13 provides the following protections to individuals and businesses:

  • Private information is never published. It is against the law to disclose or publish any private information that identifies an individual or business, including names, addresses (including GPS coordinates), Social Security numbers, and telephone numbers.
  • The Census Bureau collects information to produce statistics. No government agency or court can use personal information against respondents.
  • U.S. Census Bureau employees are sworn to protect confidentiality. People sworn to uphold Title 13 are legally required to maintain the confidentiality of your data. Every person with access to your data is sworn for life to protect your information and understands that the penalties for violating this law are applicable for a lifetime.
  • Violating the law is a serious federal crime. Anyone who violates this law will face severe penalties, including a federal prison sentence of up to five years, a fine of up to $250,000, or both.

By law, the U.S. Census Bureau cannot share personal data with any other government or law enforcement agency.

Myth #3: Personal characteristics are fixed at birth

Certain personal characteristics, like names and residences, can certainly undergo modifications throughout an individual's lifetime. But many presume that other aspects of a person’s identity—like race, ethnicity, and gender—are unchangeable and remain fixed from birth.

In today’s census surveys, demographic characteristics are self-identified. Demographic categories have changed over time, with available options reflecting changing definitions, labels, and cultural values. For instance, the U.S. Census Bureau has repeatedly adjusted racial and ethnic classifications over more than 150 years. Individuals may also change their own responses to questions over time. Social movements, the political climate, and fear of repercussions may cause individuals to be more or less likely to self-identify as LGBTQ+, Indigenous, or foreign-born, for example.

In today’s census surveys, demographic characteristics are self-identified. Demographic categories have changed over time, with available options reflecting changing definitions, labels, and cultural values.

Stay tuned for more Minnesota Compass data mythbusters in the coming months!