Minnesota Compass is rolling out this year’s Compass Points summary of quality-of-life indicators at our annual event on May 21, focused around the theme of “Place Matters.” Our team will be highlighting how quality of life can vary depending on where you live, even within the same state.
Much of that variation occurs at the neighborhood and community level (and we encourage you to check out your own neighborhood using our neighborhood profiles and build-your-own custom community profile tool). However, this article will take a look at the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota, and how our statewide trends over the past few years are reflected across our two major regions.
Minnesota’s economy is strong…
Minnesota had a record-high number of jobs in 2023, as well as our highest ever economic productivity (both overall and per capita). Although the Twin Cities has both more jobs and higher economic output than greater Minnesota, we do see that the Twin Cities has about 20,000 fewer jobs than in 2019, while greater Minnesota has about 20,000 more.
Additionally, Minnesota’s workforce participation rate is one of the highest in the nation, and is especially high in the Twin Cities.
…but not all families are feeling the effects.
However, not all Minnesotans are benefitting from these topline economic strengths. High inflation has effectively led to a drop in median household income in the state over the past four years. Both the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota have seen median income decline, but since household income was already lower in greater Minnesota, the impact may be felt harder in these communities.
Poverty rates are higher in greater Minnesota as well, and poverty rates in both regions have remained flat, despite the growth in GDP and jobs.
Rising housing costs are a particular source of economic strain, and we see an increasing share of households in both the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota paying unaffordable amounts for housing.
School-age children are struggling.
Minnesota students have yet to recover from the toll taken by remote learning and other pandemic disruptions to education and youth mental health. Eighth grade math scores dropped dramatically across the state during the pandemic and have not yet recovered.
Third grade reading proficiency has plateaued at a similarly low level in both the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota. On the positive side for education, on-time high school graduation has remained steady through 2023.
Consistent with other findings around worsening youth well-being, we see fewer school-age children reporting that adults in their school and community care about them. The drop since 2019 was especially large in greater Minnesota.
Indicators for young children are also trending in the wrong direction.
Fewer Minnesota children are receiving early childhood screening before and during Kindergarten, an important step in proactively addressing childhood developmental delays. Although both the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota have seen a sharp drop in screenings since the pandemic, greater Minnesota is getting a higher share of its children successfully screened.
Greater Minnesota also has a lower share of babies born at low birth weight than the Twin Cities, although both regions have seen an increase in recent years.
Safety indicators are a mixed bag, and vary by region.
Crime rates rose in the Twin Cities from 2019 to 2022, although they returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Greater Minnesota, on the other hand, saw only a very small uptick in crime in 2020, before returning to a decades-long downward trend.
Breaking the crime rate down into serious property crime and violent crime, the property crime rate plateaued in the Twin Cities during the pandemic before declining in 2023, while declining steadily during those years in greater Minnesota. The violent crime rate rose sharply in both regions from 2019 to 2021, before declining sharply over the next few years (but still remaining elevated relative to 2019).
Traffic safety has multiple levels to the story as well. Traffic-related injuries have been falling steadily for decades, but traffic fatalities rose during the pandemic and have remained elevated. Traffic injury rates are higher in the Twin Cities (where there is more traffic), but traffic fatality rates are higher in greater Minnesota (where hospitals may be further away).
Two new indicators Compass is tracking on perceptions of safety suggest that Minnesota adults and youth mostly feel safe in their communities (with little regional difference), but those feelings of safety are trending slightly downward.
Minnesotans are educated and engaged.
Minnesota continues to have a highly educated workforce, with about 3 in 10 greater Minnesota adults and half of Twin Cities adults holding a Bachelor’s degree or higher. We are also one of the most civically engaged states in the country, with high shares of residents who volunteer, help their neighbors, and attend arts and cultural events.
Minnesota has one of the highest voter turnout rates in the nation, although the difference between regions was notable in 2024. Voter turnout fell 3 points in the Twin Cities, while remaining at 2020 levels in greater Minnesota.
While different parts of the state see differences in education, public safety, income, and cost of living, the entire state saw many of the same trends over the past years. The economy is growing, but incomes are staying flat. Indicators for our youngest and school-aged children have not recovered from pandemic disruptions. Public safety is improving but not fully recovered, and that is reflected in public attitudes.
Minnesota Compass will continue to track these indicators and more over the coming years as we work to both measure and impact our state’s quality of life.
More insights
- See our 2023 Insights article for a peek behind the curtain at how we decide whether indicators are trending better or worse.